Monday, May 14, 2007

NBA Draft Lottery Preview

By JIM MORANDINI

The annual NBA draft lottery is Tuesday, May 22, and this year it really means something. After all, we’re not talking about Andrew Bogut or Andrea Bargnani here.

No, this year’s lottery winner gets to choose between two true prizes, Ohio State big man Greg Oden and Texas’ talented Kevin Durant. Heck, that’s like going on MTV’s “Exposed” and getting to pick either Eva Longoria or Jessica Alba. Personally, I’d go with Jessica.

Fourteen teams are in the lottery, including the Grizzlies and Celtics, the top two losers in the league. Remember the last time the Celtics were in this position? They lost out on Tim Duncan. Danny Ainge and Doc Rivers are praying that tanking all those games pays off this time.

And something else to watch for - the Suns get the Hawks’ top pick unless it lands in the top 3.Yes, the rich could get richer.

Here’s an early look at how I rate the top prospects:

1. Greg Oden, 7-0, center, Ohio State. Don’t know about you, but I watched Oden all season long and always came away expecting more. So this is the next Wilt Chamberlain? Maybe the next Alonzo Mourning. Can’t say I was really impressed until that monster game against Florida in the NCAA title game. Still, I’m old-school and was always taught that you build a team around a big guy.

2. Kevin Durant, 6-9, small forward, Texas. Choosing No. 2 is the ticket. No agonizing decision. No second-guessing by the fans. No having to listen to what a big mistake you made on “Rome is Burning,” then hearing it again by the jerks on “Around the Horn” and again on “PTI” and again by the big-mouths on “SportsCenter.” With the second pick, you just wait to see who goes first and then settle for one heckuva consolation prize.

3. Brandan Wright, 6-10, power forward, North Carolina. Who’s the best player not named Oden or Durant? The consensus seems to be Wright, a long-armed, one-and-done Tar Heel with tons of athleticism and potential.

4. Al Horford, 6-9, power forward, Florida. Wright probably has more upside, but Horford figures to contribute more right away. He’s a hard worker with a great attitude, NBA-ready body and all-around skills at both ends of the court.

5. Corey Brewer, 6-8, small forward, Florida. Is this lockdown defender and stand-still shooter a taller Bruce Bowen? Or is he Scottie Pippen without the handle and ability to create his own shot? Either way, his athleticism is off the charts and he’s soaring up the draft board.

6. Yi Jianlian, 7-0, power forward, China. I’ve never seen Yi play, but Yao Ming lived up to the hype. So when scouts describe Yi as a mobile big man with a jump shot in the mold of Dirk Nowitzki, who am I to argue?

7. Mike Conley Jr., 6-1, point guard, Ohio State. Conley has two things heavily in his favor - it’s a thin draft for point guards and his stock is hot, hot, hot after the NCAA tourney.

8. Julian Wright, 6-8, small forward, Kansas. A versatile player with excellent size and athleticism for the 3 spot. He can pass and play defense, but needs to improve his jump shot.

9. Joakim Noah, 6-11, power forward, Florida. Possibly the top overall pick had he entered the draft last year, Noah was exposed this season for what he really is a valuable role player with great energy and some really bad hair. He passes, runs and defends but offers very little offensively.

10. Roy Hibbert, 7-2, center, Georgetown. Hibbert’s late-season improvement and some pretty good moments in the NCAA tournament will entice somebody to take him early and then pray he isn’t the next Shawn Bradley.

11. Spencer Hawes, 7-0, center Washington. Hawes isn’t a great athlete and might not have the upside of some other frontcourt prospects, but he has a variety of moves, can pass and has excellent hands. Just think of Brad Miller with a low-post game.

12. Al Thornton, 6-8, small forward, Florida State. This scoring machine has an NBA body and athleticism and is best in transition. There are questions about his basketball IQ, however, and he’s somewhat of a tweener.

13. Jeff Green, 6-8, small forward, Georgetown. Got a lot of hype during the NCAA tournament but has a tendency to disappear for long stretches. Does a lot of things good, but isn’t great at any of them. More of a glue guy than a star.

14. Acie Law, 6-3, point guard, Texas A&M. Law is money in the clutch and has solid all-around skills, but he’s not flashy, not particularly athletic and doesn’t have a great first step. Other lesser-known point guards, such as USC’s athletic Gabe Pruitt, might have more upside.


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